THE ECONOMIST 經濟學人雜誌 年刊 The World in 2021

The World in 2021 全球趨勢

Ten trends to watch in the coming year

未來一年值得關注的十大趨勢

DO YOU FEEL lucky? The number 21 is connected with luck, risk, taking chances and rolling the dice. It’s the number of spots on a standard die, and the number of shillings in a guinea, the currency of wagers and horse-racing. It’s the minimum age at which you can enter a casino in America, and the name of a family of card games, including blackjack, that are popular with gamblers.

你覺得幸運嗎?21這個數字與運氣、風險、冒險和擲骰子有關。它是一個標準骰子上的點數，以及下注和賽馬所用的貨幣幾內亞幣的先令數。它是美國人進入賭場的最低年齡，也是包括21點在內的一系列紙牌遊戲的名字，這些紙牌遊戲很受賭徒們的歡迎。

All of which seems strangely appropriate for a year of unusual uncertainty. The great prize on offer is the chance of bringing the coronavirus pandemic under control. But in the meantime risks abound, to health, economic vitality and social stability. As 2021 approaches, here are ten trends to watch in the year ahead.

所有這些似乎都奇怪地適用於不尋常的不確定之年。最大的收穫是控制住冠狀病毒大流行的機會。但與此同時，健康、經濟活力和社會穩定面臨著諸多風險。隨著2021年的臨近，這裡有10個趨勢值得關注。

1. Fights over vaccines. As the first vaccines become available in quantity, the focus will shift from the heroic effort of developing them to the equally daunting task of distributing them. Vaccine diplomacy will accompany fights within and between countries over who should get them and when. A wild card: how many people will refuse a vaccine when offered?

1. 疫苗之爭。隨著首批疫苗的大量供應，重點將從英勇的開發工作轉向同樣艱巨的分發工作。疫苗外交將伴隨著國家內部和國家之間關於誰應該獲得疫苗以及何時獲得疫苗的鬥爭。一個未知因素:當提供疫苗時，有多少人會拒絕?

2. A mixed economic recovery. As economies bounce back from the pandemic the recovery will be patchy, as local outbreaks and clampdowns come and go—and governments pivot from keeping companies on life-support to helping workers who have lost their jobs. The gap between strong and weak firms will widen.

2. 經濟復甦喜憂參半。隨著經濟從大流行病中復甦，復甦將是斷斷續續的，因為地方疫情爆發和打擊行動來來去去——政府將重心從維持企業的生存轉向幫助失業工人。強弱公司之間的差距將會擴大。

3. Patching up the new world disorder. How much will Joe Biden, newly installed in the White House, be able to patch up a crumbling rules-based international order? The Paris climate treaty and the Iran nuclear deal are obvious places to start. But the crumbling predates Donald Trump, and will outlast his presidency.

3.修補新的世界混亂。新入主白宮的喬•拜登(Joe Biden)能在多大程度上修補搖搖欲墜、基於規則的國際秩序?巴黎氣候條約和伊朗核協議顯然是起點。但這種崩潰早於 Donald Trump ，並將持續到他擔任總統期間。

4. More US-China tensions. Don’t expect Mr Biden to call off the trade war with China. Instead, he will want to mend relationships with allies to wage it more effectively. Many countries from Africa to South-East Asia are doing their best to avoiding picking sides as the tension rises.

4. 更多的美中緊張關係。不要指望拜登會取消與中國的貿易戰。相反，他將希望修補與盟友的關係，以更有效地進行。隨著緊張局勢的加劇，從非洲到東南亞的許多國家都在盡力避免選邊站隊。

5. Companies on the front line. Another front for the US-China conflict is companies, and not just the obvious examples of Huawei and TikTok, as business becomes even more of a geopolitical battlefield. As well as pressure from above, bosses also face pressure from below, as employees and customers demand that they take stands on climate change and social justice, where politicians have done too little.

5. 前線的警報。美中衝突的另一個戰線是企業，而不僅僅是華為(Huawei)和TikTok這兩個明顯的例子，因為商業越來越像是地緣政治戰場。除了來自上級的壓力外，老闆們還面臨來自下級的壓力，因為員工和客戶要求他們在氣候變化和社會正義問題上採取立場，而政客們在這方面做得太少。

6. After the tech-celeration. In 2020 the pandemic accelerated the adoption of many technological behaviours, from video-conferencing and online shopping to remote working and distance learning. In 2021 the extent to which these changes will stick, or snap back, will become clearer.

6. 在技術更新之後。2020年，大流行病加速了許多技術行為的採用，從視頻會議和網上購物到遠程工作和遠程學習。到2021年，這些變化將在多大程度上持續或迅速恢復將變得更加清晰。

7. A less footloose world. Tourism will shrink and change shape, with more emphasis on domestic travel. Airlines, hotel chains and aircraft manufacturers will struggle, as will universities that rely heavily on foreign students. Cultural exchange will suffer, too.

7. 一個不那麼自由的世界。旅遊業將收縮和改變形態，更加強調國內旅遊。航空公司、連鎖酒店和飛機製造商將舉步維艱，嚴重依賴外國學生的大學也是如此。文化交流也將受到影響。

8. An opportunity on climate change. One silver lining amid the crisis is the chance to take action on climate change, as governments invest in green recovery plans to create jobs and cut emissions. How ambitious will countries’ reduction pledges be at the UN climate conference, delayed from 2020?

8. 氣候變化的機遇。危機中的一線希望是在氣候變化問題上採取行動的機會，因為各國政府投資於綠色復甦計畫，以創造就業機會和減少排放。從2020年開始，各國在聯合國氣候大會上做出的減排承諾有多大?

9. The year of déjà vu. That is just one example of how the coming year may feel, in many respects, like a second take on 2020, as events including the Olympics, the Dubai Expo and many other political, sporting and commercial gatherings do their best to open a year later than planned. Not all will succeed.

9. 似曾相識的一年。這只是未來一年的一個例子，說明未來一年在很多方面可能會像2020年的第二個樣子，因為奧運會、迪拜世博會和其他許多政治、體育和商業盛會都在盡最大努力比計畫晚一年開幕。不是所有的都能成功。

10. A wake-up call for other risks. Academics and analysts, many of whom have warned of the danger of a pandemic for years, will try to exploit a narrow window of opportunity to get policymakers to take other neglected risks, such as antibiotic resistance and nuclear terrorism, more seriously. Wish them luck.

10. 這是對其他風險的警鐘。許多學者和分析人士多年來就大流行的危險發出警告，他們將試圖利用這一狹窄的機會，讓決策者更認真地對待其他被忽視的風險，如抗生素耐藥性和核恐怖主義。祝他們好運吧。

The coming year promises to be particularly unpredictable, given the interactions between the pandemic, an uneven economic recovery and fractious geopolitics. This annual will, we hope, help you improve your odds as you navigate the risks and opportunities ahead.

鑑於大流行病、不平衡的經濟復甦和難以捉摸的地緣政治之間的相互作用，未來的一年注定是特別不可預測的。我們希望，這個年度將幫助您提高您的機會，因為您導航的風險和機會前面。

And it’s not all doom and gloom. Our special section, “Aftershocks”, considers some of the lessons, and chances for positive change, that have emerged from the crisis. So let the dice fly high—and, whatever cards 2021 may end up dealing you, may the odds be ever in your favour.

但也不全是厄運和沮喪。我們的特別部分，“餘震”，考慮了一些教訓，積極的改變，從危機中出現的機會。所以，讓骰子飛得高一些吧，不管2021年最終給你發什麼牌，都希望機會永遠對你有利。

THE ECONOMIST 《經濟學人》雜誌是全球最有公信力的一本週刊，已享譽國際百餘年。經濟學人編輯風格與眾不同，每則報導皆由編輯負責群一同精心討論出來，因此每篇文章採納 各方意見，立場絕對中立，而非以個人觀點報導。這也是為什麼經濟學人的每一篇文章皆不具名。

《經濟學人》報導內容涵蓋全球，而非獨看亞洲地區。報導內容包括時事、商業、政治、經濟、科學、書籍及文藝。文章用字遣詞精簡，在大膽批判之餘，不失作為學者的風範，因此被譽為最值得一看的國際雜誌。

英國《經濟學人》雜誌的寫作風格十分有特色，注重於如何在最小的篇幅內告訴讀者最多的信息。《經濟學人》的文章也以妙語聞名，是學英文 、準備留學學子的一流讀物。