Upgrading Leadership’s Crystal Ball: Five Reasons Why Forecasting Must Replace Predicting and How to Make the Strategic Change i

This work points out the flaws of predicting (extrapolating from historical trends) and argues that forecasting (estimating the mathematical probabilities of possibilities) should be used to guide decision making in business and public policy. The author explains the theory of forecasting, then shows how to use forecasting in business, government, and other dynamic systems, and how to use the results of forecasting to develop strategies. The book is designed to be accessible to all, with a conversational style, humorous b&w cartoons, and examples from the public and private sectors. Annotation ©2014 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)