本書記錄了美國泡沫年代的混亂事件:由九○年代後期的網路熱潮到二千年初期的房價大漲到後來全球房貸崩潰。內容記載事件發生的原由,以及作者葛蘭特判斷可能又將爆發的金融事件。
貫穿本書的市場先生是一位虛構人物,基於某種未經治療的心理不平衡,這位仁兄幾乎在每個周期都想用差異頗大的價格買賣股票。陽光普照時,這名怪咖會纏著你,要你把你的事業股權賣給他,可是,當夜晚降臨,他會央求你買下他的股權。價錢根本不是問題,他只想參與,或者只想退出;而理智的你,只要利用這個情緒失衡的合夥人所製造的機會,就可以發財了。
本書詼諧地說明,過去十年來的病態行為,除了容易出錯的人性之外,還有更多原因,應該被責怪的還有存款人與投資人輕易信賴的貨幣與央行。本書證明了金融界的每件事都有周期;觀念、證券、市場和國家都有自己的季節循環,但出色的文章和精闢的判斷--本書富含的特質,卻永不褪流行。而高明的投資人不會浪費生命去感嘆這個怪人的性格缺點,相反地,他們牢牢抓住他所提供的機會,判斷被錯估的資產價值──太低或太高,是這位老先生送給耐心的投資人士的禮物。
對沖基金鮑森公司(Paulson & Co)總裁約翰.鮑森(John Paulson)因為準確預測到房貸危機,二○○七年他的收入多過整個盧安達的國內生產毛額(GDP),二○○八年春天他在《葛蘭特利率觀察家》會議上向聽眾表示,大賺一筆的秘訣在於市場先生最失常的時候,也就是最輕浮或最傷心時,鮑森在正常人認為房貸市場只賺不賠的時候便大幅賣出。最後,鮑森告訴聽眾,他預料有機會買進他成功賣空的房貸證券。
作者最欣賞的投機人士是一九六○年代工業集團Teledyne的共同創辦人和舵手,他名叫亨利.辛格頓(Henry Singleton)。他是唸過麻省理工學院的電機工程師,卻以配置資本而聞名。他做了我們大家都該做的事,也就是在市場先生賣出時買進,在市場先生買進時賣出。今日許多公司主管做不好的事,辛格頓卻做得出色極了:當Teledyne股價大漲時,他利用股票去進行收購,等到周期反轉時,股價變低時,他買回及取消股票。一九七二年至一九八四年間管理公司股票(讀者可在第一章看到)之後,辛格頓將Teledyne的股數減少了九成,辛格頓不支領選擇權,他用自己的錢去買股票,從未賣掉個人持股,真的是資本家的楷模!
所以說,市場效率理論學派儘管發表論文吧!市場先生完全不在意。買高賣低,在市場頂點失去理智,在市場底部失去勇氣,他只是凡夫俗子。他邀請我們佔他的便宜去發財。希望本書能夠至少幫助一些人接受他的邀約。
Why is America in financial crisis today? This book, better than any to date, explains it all-how we got here and where we are going. The how we got here is brilliantly described in a collection of pieces from Grant's Interest Rate Observer, the Wall Street insider's Bible. The where we are going is treated in Jim Grant's up-to-the-minute introduction. No fan of Greenspan or Bernanke, Grant tells the unvarnished truth about America.
★本書中譯版《泡沫年代:全球金融體系的錯亂根源》由商周出版發行。
作者簡介
詹姆士.葛蘭特(James Grant)
《葛蘭特利率觀察家》創辦人及主編,出生於一九四六年,利率超低的一年。印地安那大學畢業後,他在哥倫比亞大學取得碩士學位,當時美元甫由金本位制轉換成現代匯率制,一九七○年代(通膨高漲的年代),他在《巴爾的摩太陽報》(Baltimore Sun)和《霸榮週刊》(Barron’s)從事新聞工作。
作者共有五本著作,四本為金融和金融史相關領域,一本為美國開國先驅約翰.亞當斯的傳記。育有四名成年子女,與妻子居住於布魯克林。
更多關於作者的資訊與文章,請見《葛蘭特利率觀察家》網站:www.grantspub.com
James Grant founded Grant's Interest Rate Observer, a twice-monthly journal of the financial markets, in 1983.
He is the author of five books on finance and financial history: Bernard M. Baruch: The Adventures of a Wall Street Legend (Simon & Schuster, 1983), Money of the Mind (Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 1992), Minding Mr. Market (Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 1993) and The Trouble with Prosperity (Times Books, 1996), and Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008). John Adams: Party of One, a biography of the second president of the United States was published in March 2005 by Farrar, Straus & Giroux.
His latest book, "Mr. Speaker! The Life and Times of Thomas B. Reed, the Man Who Broke the Filibuster," will be published in May by Simon & Schuster.
Mr. Grant's television appearances include "60 Minutes," "The Charley Rose Show," "CBS Evening News," and a 10-year stint on Wall Street Week. His journalism has appeared in a variety of periodicals, including the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal and Foreign Affairs, and he contributed an essay to the Sixth Edition of Graham and Dodd's Security Analysis (McGraw-Hill, 2009).
Mr. Grant, a former Navy gunner's mate, is a Phi Beta Kappa alumnus of Indiana University. He earned a master's degree in international relations from Columbia University and began his career in journalism in 1972, at the Baltimore Sun. He joined the staff of Barron's in 1975 where he originated the Current Yield column.
Visit the Website for Mr. Speaker! The Life and Times of Thomas B. Reed The Man Who Broke the Filibuster at www.mrspeakerbook.com